October 03, 2006

David Frum's Choices

My last post focused on Henry Kissinger and the Iraq war- three days ago David Frum ex speech writer to Bush prophesied that Bush will at some point in the next year be faced with a deal that allows the US to take diplomatic credit for a deal which allows Iran to maintain the uranium enrichment it has already done and its influence in Iraq but will allow the US out.

The true magnitude of the choice that Frum beleives that Bush will face is laid out here. Frum sketches out the sheer lack of alternatives facing the President, and analyses Bush's reaction:

How will the president react to this proposition? Every instinct in him will revolt against it, I am sure. But what is his alternative? A war with Iran to add to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?...Failing that, the alternatives seem rapidly to be reducing themselves to two: either admitting defeat - or else accepting defeat without admitting it.

But Frum doesn't stop there, his post finishes by raising the possibility that a discussion will take place within the White House and be visible enough that

conservatives and Republicans unhappy with the dangerous drift of current policy cannot make their voices heard.

What is the solution in Iran? Frum is right- we can't invade and nor can we stop therefore the development of nuclear weapons and support for Hizbollah- there is evidence that Saudi princes may be using their leverage on the Syrians to some end according to this report but what end that is nobody knows.

The problem is that as Frum recognises we don't have much leverage upon the Iranians- they have the oil, they have the guns, they can upset us in Iraq.

Any foreign policy geniuses out there with an answer?