May 25, 2007

Sarkozy's voters

Just posted an article at Bits- its about the rather amazing news about the French election. According to post election polling, Sarkozy the rightwing victor lost every age group save the retired. Amongst those over 65 he won 75% of the vote whilst winning somewhere in the forties in every other demographic. Its interesting- I'm not sure maybe Vino could enlighten me but this might be the first election decided in this manner- ie where simply winning the pensioners has won you the election. I've pontificated about some of the implications- but it is a fascinating statistic.

4 comments:

Vino S said...

The figures I have seen are slightly different from the ones you quote from the Tribune. The Independent thought Sarkozy was in the lead among the 25-34 year olds as well as the over-65s.

Because people don't put their dates of birth on their ballot papers, it is difficult to know one way or the other which estimate is correct. However, I do agree with your main point that his victory was assured by the support of the over 60s.

I think, because pensioners mostly vote for the right and we have an aging population, moat of the elections where the right wins narrowly are, in a sense, due to the pensioner vote. For example, if it hadn't been for pensioners I am not sure Heath would have won in 1970 or led in the popular vote in Feb 1974.

edmund said...

i'm sure that's not the case cerinaly them being crucial - i'm sure they were for the tories in 92.

I'd be suprised if Nixon's narrow victory in 1968 was not secured by pensioners.

It would also not suprise me given how leftwing the old are in Isreal if Rabin's narrow victory in the early 90's did not depend on pensioners-though that was not a two way choice

To be honest like perhpas Vilno-these figures seem too extreme to me, i'd be very suprpised if the gap was that strong. Besides anything the elderly seldom switch and 75% on that tunrout would require loads of them switching to the right compared to younger generations!

edmund said...

i'm sure that's not the case cerinaly them being crucial - i'm sure they were for the tories in 92.

I'd be suprised if Nixon's narrow victory in 1968 was not secured by pensioners.

It would also not suprise me given how leftwing the old are in Isreal if Rabin's narrow victory in the early 90's did not depend on pensioners-though that was not a two way choice

To be honest like perhpas Vilno-these figures seem too extreme to me, i'd be very suprpised if the gap was that strong. Besides anything the elderly seldom switch and 75% on that tunrout would require loads of them switching to the right compared to younger generations!

Lord Nazh said...

Gracchi: I'd wait to see something official (if possible) before going overboard on this.

Considering that Royal didn't get a majority of women votes (all ages) I'd say Sarko had more than just the old folks on his side.